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Ghana’s economy shows recovery signs, but risks persist—S&P maintains a stable outlook.
Ghana’s sovereign credit rating has been affirmed at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings, reflecting improving economic conditions alongside persistent fiscal and external risks.
The ratings agency said stronger economic growth and rising export volumes, particularly from gold, have supported a significant buildup in foreign currency reserves, helping to stabilize the country’s external position. It noted that recent fiscal reforms and tighter expenditure controls are expected to keep budget deficits more contained than in the period leading up to the country’s debt crisis in late 2022.
Despite these gains, S&P cautioned that Ghana remains vulnerable to global shocks, particularly the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which could drive up fuel and transport costs and, in turn, push inflation higher. The agency said such developments could also increase government borrowing costs and weigh on investor confidence.
Ghana’s current account performance has strengthened considerably, supported by favorable commodity prices and robust export earnings. The country recorded a surplus of more than $9 billion in 2025, while gross foreign reserves rose to record levels. However, S&P warned that this position could weaken if global prices for key exports such as gold, cocoa, and oil decline.
The report highlighted progress in Ghana’s debt restructuring program, noting that the government has either completed or reached agreements in principle on nearly all targeted debt. This has helped ease immediate financing pressures and contributed to improved macroeconomic stability.
At the same time, the agency pointed to ongoing challenges, including high debt servicing costs, which are projected to consume a significant share of government revenue in the coming years. It also cited structural weaknesses in public financial management and the risk that fiscal discipline may not be sustained over time, particularly during election cycles.
S&P further noted that while inflation has eased significantly from recent highs, it is expected to rise moderately in 2026 due to external pressures. The Ghanaian cedi has also shown signs of stability after a period of volatility, supported by improved foreign exchange inflows.
Looking ahead, the agency said Ghana’s rating could be upgraded if the government maintains fiscal discipline, reduces debt servicing burdens, and strengthens its external buffers.
However, it warned that any slowdown in reforms, renewed fiscal slippage, or setbacks in the debt restructuring process could put downward pressure on the rating.
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